Indian G20 Humble Pie Kashmir Struggle on a Momentus Geopolitical Crossroad
Salman Khan 23 May 2023, Johannesburg, South Africa.
At the turn of the event, Indian opportunism received one of the biggest blows since Modi came to power in 2014. The most powerful countries of G20 configuration boycotted the summit due to India hosting of G20 summit in the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The Republic of China, Indonesia, Mexico, Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have collectively denounced the invitation and objected to the Indian government for holding the G20 summit’s tourism plenaries in Srinagar in India illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir. It is a total diplomatic disaster for the Indian government.
The Group of Twenty (G20), a collection of twenty of the world’s largest economies formed in 1999, was conceived as a bloc that would bring together the most important industrialized and developing economies to discuss international economic and financial stability. Its annual summit, a gathering of G20 leaders that debuted in 2008, has evolved into a major forum for discussing economics as well as other pressing global issues. Bilateral meetings on the summit’s sidelines have occasionally led to major international agreements. And while one of the group’s most impressive achievements was its robust response to the 2008 financial crisis, its cohesion has since frayed, and analysts have criticized its lackluster response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
What is G20?
The G20, formed in 1999, is a group of twenty of the world’s largest economies that meets regularly to coordinate global policy on trade, health, climate, and another issuesG20 forum comprises Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States. Spain is invited as a permanent guest. Together. The Group of Twenty, an informal gathering of many of the world’s largest economies, is the premier global forum for discussing economic issues. But it has faced divisions over trade, climate change, and the war in Ukraine, and division of participation in the G20 summit 2023 as the current presidency held by India decided to hold some of its tourism plenaries session in Srinagar India illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir to portray to the world that their illegal occupation is legitimate. This self-serving stint and fait accompli have discredited Indian standing as president of G20 for 2022-2023 to take advantage of its chairing of meetings and as a result, many countries boycotting the G20 summit in India including China, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Mexico, Egypt and Turkey.
Why G20 matter?
The nations of the G20 account for around 80 percent of global economic output, nearly 75 percent of global exports, and about 60 percent of the world’s population. These figures have remained relatively stable while the corresponding rates for Group of Seven (G7) nations, a smaller group of advanced democracies, have shrunk, as larger emerging markets take up a relatively greater share of the world’s economy.
G20 and Geopolitical Rift:
What have been the main points of contention? Geopolitical tensions, heightened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine but also
spurred by strategic competition between China and the United States, have increasingly threatened cooperation. In the United States, bipartisan legislative efforts have aimed to deny Russia standing in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and other international institutions. Russia’s participation in the G20 has grown contentious, with some Western countries seeking to exclude Moscow, though members including China and Brazil have opposed that idea. To add spice to the geopolitical rift India added insult to injury by provoking G20’s most powerful member China with a glaring decision to host the G20 summit some of the sessions in India illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir which is claimed by China and Pakistan as their territories.
Twist to the tale:
India took advantage of the G20 presidency to host some of the G20 meeting sessions in India’s illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) to demonstrate the normalization and legitimize their 75 years old illegal occupation. The Jammu and Kashmir which is the size of 86 000 sq. meters in radius contested by three nuclear powers China, Pakistan, and India. The United Nations has declared Jammu and Kashmir as a disputed territory and there are 28 UNSC resolutions since 1948 on Kashmir which explicitly instructed India to hold a free and fair referendum Kashmir and let Kashmiris practice their right of self-determination which India has been denying since 1948.
Kashmir dispute:
The Kashmir dispute has been dominating the India-Pakistan relationship ever since the birth of the two states in 1947. It has also played a significant role in border disputes between China and India over Askai Chin which continues to date. Kashmir lies between three of the most populous countries of the world: India, China, and Pakistan, covering a land mass of over 86,000 square kilometres, and inhabiting over 15 million people. The struggle over the Kashmir valley has been one of the most prolonged conflicts of the last century. Since the controversial arrival of Indian forces in Kashmir on 27 October 1947, the territory of Jammu and Kashmir has been divided by a ceasefire line or Line of Control between sides, under Pakistani and Indian control respectively. Since 1947, India and Pakistan have failed to reach a consensus on an agreement for the territory of Kashmir. Instead, they have fought three wars (1948, 1965, and 1971), and almost had a nuclear showdown in 1999, known as the Kargil War. There have been two United Nations (UN) mandated ceasefires in 1949 and 1965 respectively and 58 United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions on the Kashmir dispute. Most recently on 5 August 2019, an illegal and unilateral abrogation of Article 370,35a by Modi’s government drew a tsunami of world condemnation.
Background to the Dispute
The Kashmir dispute is the oldest unresolved item on the UN agenda. There are 58 UNSC resolutions in connection to the Kashmir dispute. The Kashmir conflict has been seen as a bone of contention in the India-Pakistan relationship ever since the ‘birth’ of the two states in 1947. It has also played a substantial role in border geopolitical disputes between India and China over Aksai Chin (a portion of Kashmir). As stated in Chapter 1, Kashmir lies between three of the most populous countries of the world: India, China, and Pakistan, covering a land mass of over 86,000 square kilometers – almost the size of the UK, and inhabiting over 17 million people (Lamy, Baylis & Smith, 2006: 6).
The treaty of Amritsar and Lahore in 1847 has been identified as the start of the dispute, and since the arrival of Indian forces in Kashmir on 27 October 1947, the territory of Jammu and Kashmir has been divided by the LoC between the two territories, administered by Pakistan on the one side and India on the other (Lamb, 1991: 6). India and Pakistan have failed to reach an equitable agreement regarding the disputed territory of Kashmir. Instead, they have fought three wars (1948, 1965, and 1971), and almost had a nuclear showdown in 1999 known as the Kargil War. There have been several UN-mandated ceasefires over Kashmir disputes (1949 and 1965) (Wheeler, 2010: 319-344). Most recently, after a suicide attack in the Pulwana region (a district of the Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir) on 14 February 2019, in which 40 Indian paramilitary police were killed; the world witnessed another stand-off between the two nuclear arch-rivals (Herrera, 2019).
Geography (location)
In the context of this research, one needs to understand and appreciate the positioning of Kashmir, geographically, and why this territory is being contested between three nuclear powers: China, India, and Pakistan. The Kashmir terrain is mountainous, and the topography is subdivided into seven sectors. From southwest to north-east, those sectors consist of the meadows, the Pir Panjal hill tracks, the Kashmir vale, the mighty Himalayas area, the basin of the Indus River valley, and the Karakoram mountainous range. The valley of Jammu’s and Kashmir’s densely populated areas lies at an average altitude of approximately 1,679 meters. India controls the Vale which comprises the centre of Kashmir.
Demography
In 2011, the population of Kashmir state was 13,548,925. In 2018, the population had grown to an estimated 14,324 million. The population is predominantly Muslim. Islam represents around 68.9% of the total population; 28.7% are Hindus; Sikhism represents around 1.9%; Buddhism 0.9% and Christians 0.8% according to the Jammu and Kashmir Population Census, 2011-2018, 2019 (J&K official portal, 2021.
Economy
The potential of the economy in Kashmir is huge in the sectors of agriculture;
freshwater fisheries; high-value timber; semi-precious and precious stones, for example, rubies and emeralds; marble; ferrous and non-ferrous metal; wool; hide; cashmere; saffron; tulips, truffles; fungi; fruits and vegetables, such as peaches, quinces, cherries, apples, peaches, seakale, beans, cauliflower, asparagus, beetroots, and artichokes, and crops such as rice, wheat, corn, oats and barley (FAO, 2012).
Despite the turmoil in Kashmir, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2018 accounted for US$17 billion (J&K Official State Portal, 2022). The recent building of the CPEC, a revival of an ancient silk trade route as referred to earlier in this chapter, has raised Indian apprehensions, and Kashmir’s geostrategic position has come under the international spotlight, as the CPEC runs through the northern areas of Pakistan, which India claims to be part of Kashmir (Markey and West, 2016).
Human Rights Violation and Abuse.
Since the beginning of Indian illegal occupation started on 27 October 1947, the state of Jammu of Kashmir remain in a state of emergency and perpetual curfews and almost martial law. There had been credible reports from Amnesty International, Human right Watch and the Office of the Commissioner of Human Rights UN which equate to as follows,
Total killings – 100,178
Custodial killings – 8,532
Civilians arrested – 164,931
Structure destroyed/damaged – 109, 247
Women widowed – 22,899
Children orphaned – 107,758
Women gang-raped / molested – 11,107
Pellet guns injuries – 3,800
The OHCHR Report on Human Rights Violations
After a long period of silence by the UN on the Kashmir dispute, a 2018 OHCHR report shocked the world. This report consisted of 49 pages with authenticated facts of human rights violations, extra-judicial killing, and abduction, the use of pellet guns, rape, and torture in Indian-occupied Kashmir. The report covers the said incidents between July 2016 and April 2018. This report also investigated the situation in Pakistan-administered Kashmir within that time frame where the human rights violations were of a different, more structural, nature (UN OHCHR, 2019). The full report can be accessed from the UN OHCHR website https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Countries/PK/Developmen tsInKashmirJune2016ToApril2018.pdf
This report put the spotlight on atrocities committed in Kashmir, especially in Indian-administered Kashmir. It is a major milestone in the Kashmir struggle as it validates Kashmiri claims of the Indian iron fist’s handling of the Kashmiri’s resistance to the Indian occupation; this report tarnished the image of India in the international community and asked many questions about the Indian secularism and democratic values as enshrined in its own constitution (Güldoğan, 2019). Amnesty International (AI) and Human Rights Watch (HRW) have repeatedly asked the Indian government to respect the civil and political rights of Kashmiris and halt ongoing human rights violations on both sides of the disputed territories of Kashmir (HRW, 2019). These reports specifically shed light on the Indian army’s abuses toward children by using pellet guns which partially blind them.
“We owe our children – the most vulnerable citizens in any society – a life free from violence and fear.” Nelson Mandela.
The Nelson Mandela above statement on the values of human rights speaks volumes and the Indian government should examine and revisit their human rights abuses in India Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir IIOJK.
The second OHCHR Report on Human Rights Violations April 2019.
This second report of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for human rights (OHCHR) on the situation of human rights in Indian-Administered Kashmir andPakistan-Administered Kashmir covers the period from May 2018 to April 2019.(UN ONCHR, 2019). It is ironic to note that 97% of this report focused on the human rights violations and abuses in Indian-Administrated Kashmir. The OHCHR officer’s request to visit for the fact-finding mission to Jammu and Kashmir was denied by the Indian government. The eye-opener report can be found on the following link on the UN OHCHR website https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Countries/PK/KashmirUpd ateReport_8July2019.pdf
“I hate race discrimination most intensely and in all its manifestations. I have fought it all during my life; I fight it now and will do so until the end of my days.” Nelson Mandela.
Torture: Indian State’s Instrument of Control in Indian-Administered Jammu and Kashmir
This report consists of 432 case studies of torture within a new report titled Torture: Indian State’s Instrument of Control in Indian Administered Jammu and Kashmir. A report was compiled by the Jammu and Kashmir Coalition of Civil Societies (JKCCS) on alleged Indian atrocities which focused on the registered cases at police stations in Jammu and Kashmir. The report consists of 500 pages and includes First Information Reports (FIRs) to the police. The foreword for this report was written by Juan E Mendez, a former UN Special Rapporteur on Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman, and Degrading Treatment or Punishment (2010-16)
“A nation should not be judged by how it treats its highest citizens, but its lowest ones.” Nelson Mandela.
South African Foreign Policy: Transformation of Global Institutions and Multilateralism:
Since 1994, South Africa was actively involved in the transformation of the global institute by adopting its foreign policy goals and using multilateralism as a foreign policy tool to achieve this. Global democracy could be a key political issue, although it is not a goal shared by all. South Africa’s post-apartheid policy reveals that transformational world governance issues have enjoyed higher priority than all administrations previous to 1994 in the era of apartheid administration (1948- 1994) (Landsberg, 2010: 23). South Africa advocated for a multilateralist stance and emphasized the need to change international, political, developmental, and financial institutions so that transfers of wealth and power would affect Africa and the Global South (Kumar, 2011: 150).
South Africa’s Position on the Kashmir Dispute
When the government of India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir under article 370, 35a, in early August 2019, DIRCO released the following statement on these developments:
South Africa notes with concern the escalation of tensions surrounding developments in Jammu and Kashmir. The issue of Jammu and Kashmir should be resolved bilaterally, and South Africa urges India and Pakistan to resolve their differences through peaceful means. South Africa calls on both countries to exercise restraint and refrain from actions that could further exacerbate the situation and potentially destabilize the region. There is an urgent need for rhetoric to be toned down. South Africa further appeals that the freedom and rights of citizens be respected in line with international humanitarian and human rights laws. Given South Africa’s history of a peaceful and democratic transition, we strongly believe that meaningful dialogue and consultations are the only way to sustainably resolve disputes. In this regard, the future of Jammu and Kashmir should be settled by peaceful means, through inclusive dialogue. We have noted that demonstrations have taken place in South Africa. We reiterate that South Africa is a democracy, which allows the freedom to express different views, but all actions should still be in accordance with, and be observant of, the law (DIRCO, 2019 in Monyela 2019).
Then it comes as expected a false flag operation known as the Pulwama attack in Kashmir when 40 Indian paramilitary personnel were killed by freedom fighters, similar to the MK’s attack on South African security personnel during apartheid. It was surprising that the ANC-led government condemned the freedom fighters’ attack on Indian security personnel who are brutally oppressing the people of Kashmir. DIRCO issued an official statement condemning the attack:
The South African Government condemns in the strongest terms the attack in Kashmir, killing around 40 security personnel and injuring many others in one of the deadliest attacks on Indian forces in this area for years. President Cyril Ramaphosa has, on behalf of the Government and people of South Africa, extended the country’s deepest condolences to the Government and the people of the Republic of India following the unjustifiable and cowardly attack. He conveyed that the thoughts of South Africans are with the people and the Government of India during this trying time. Acts of terrorism have no place in society and constitute a threat to development, peace, and security. The South African Government wishes to reiterate its solidarity with the Government of India in confronting the scourge of terrorism and will continue to support regional and international efforts to address terrorism in all its forms (Dirco, 2019).
South Africa is not ignoring the Kashmir dispute but apart from its expressions of concern noted above, and its declarations that the situation be resolved peacefully and bilaterally between India and Pakistan, South Africa has not acted to become more involved or to highlight the issue in the Security Council, for example, where it is completing the final year of its third term. This would suggest that South Africa’s involvement is limited to that of concerned international observers. This is surprising as the dispute is the world’s longest unresolved matter on the UNSC agenda since 1948. It is safe to conclude that South Africa has not taken any firm position on India illegally occupying Jammu and Kashmir IIOJK due to her tri-dimensional relationship with India such as political, economic, and socio-cultural.
It is sad to notice that the ANC-led South African government ignored all the calls to boycott the Indian-hosted G20 summit in Srinagar. There is definitely a major shift in South African foreign policy from Mandela’s principles based to neoliberalism’s political economy which is a shame on our historical triumphs of Human Rights victory from the oppressive apartheid regime, but it seems the current government has taken a U-turn on the Mandela’s principled based foreign policy. History will judge us not by the triumphs we had but by our non-cooperative behavior toward those who are still struggling for their liberation from neo-colonist like Indians, Morocco et al.
Let’s see how Dirco will handle the call from ICC for Putin’s arrest and NPA warrant of arrest for PM Modi during the August Brics conference in Durban. Let’s also see if DA’s Western Cape premier Allan Winde will also call for PM Modi’s arrest as he has been vocal about the arrest of Putin if he did go to Cape Town during his visit to South Africa in August’s Brics conference
In conclusion, India’s desperate attempts to legitimize its illegal occupation of Jammu and Kashmir are firing back and their self-exposing themselves to the world and helping Kashmiris to find more support than ever before. India’s acts of desperation are faux pas in the Kashmir struggle and seems the falling Indian union and their emperor (Modi-jee) populist politics are finding themselves in hot water rather than doing any good to their country’s image on the international stage. There is no power in the world that has ever ruled over the people against their will and Kashmiris have been fighting for the last 75 years and will continue to fight for another one thousand years but will never surrender to India’s illegal occupation of their land. Let the sanity prevail and perhaps New Delhi will realize sooner than later that Kashmir belongs to Kashmir and an Indian honorable exit would be the right thing to do.
Salman Khan Paul Harris Fellow.
An independent geopolitical analyst for South East Asia
Founder of South African Kashmiri Action Group SAKAG
Kashmir Centre for Africa Union KCAU
Kashmir Global Movement.
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